Range shift and loss of genetic diversity under climate change in the red-backed fairywren (Malurus melanocephalus), an Australian endemic bird species

Climatic variability is the most important force influencing the distribution dynamics of common and widespread species, with significant effects on their current biogeographical patterns. In this study, phylogeography was integrated with ecological niche modelling to understand the range dynamics of an Australian bird species, the red-backed fairywren (Malurus melanocephalus), under various climate change scenarios. Specifically, an ecological niche modelling approach with Bayesian-based phylogeographical analysis was used to develop robust inferences regarding the demographic history of the species. The predictions of the model were mostly consistent with the present distribution of the species. However, under the Last Interglacial bioclimatic conditions, the model predicted a significantly narrower distribution than today, indicating the existence of allopatric refugia. Predictions for the Last Glacial Maximum indicated that the species had a wider distribution, extending northwards. Additionally, predictions for the future (2050 and 2070) indicated that the species will probably have a narrower distribution than at present, which will be shifted eastwards. The extended Bayesian skyline plot analysis, which provides a robust analysis of fluctuations in the effective population size throughout the evolutionary history of a species, produced results highly consistent with the ecological niche modelling predictions for the red-backed fairywren. This is the first study to investigate the Late Quaternary history of an endemic avian taxon from Australia using ecological niche modelling and Bayesian-based demographic analysis.