Preliminary investigations on flood susceptibility mapping in Ankara (Turkey) using modified analytical hierarchy process (M-AHP)

Susceptibility mapping for disasters is very important and provides the necessary means for efficient urban planning, such as site selection and the determination of the regulations, risk assessment and the planning of the post-disaster stage, such as emergency plans and activities. The main purpose of the present study is to introduce the preliminary results of an expert based flood susceptibility mapping approach applied in urban areas in case of Ankara, Turkey. The proposed approach is based on Modified Analytic Hierarchy Process (M-AHP), which is an expert-based algorithm and provides data based modeling. The existing spatial datasets are evaluated in the decision process and the specified number of decision points according to the degree desired can be formed. The parameter priorities can be identified at the beginning of the modeling with this approach by the responsible expert. The spatial datasets used in the modeling and mapping process have been provided by the General Directorate of Mapping (HGM). Additionally, the slope gradient of topography, drainage density, and topographic wetness index of the site being one of the second derivatives of topography have been evaluated to identify the main conditioning factors controlling water accumulation on ground. Considering the uncertainties in flood hazard assessment and limitations in sophisticated analytic solutions, the proposed methodology could be evaluated to be an efficient tool to detect the most influential parameters representing the flood vulnerability and assessing the mitigation applications in urban environment.