An evaluation of the variation in the rates of occupational accidents in Turkey with trend analysis methodology. Are occupational accidents really diminishing?

Objectives: To show whether the rate of occupational accidents is decreasing in Turkey. Methods: Data on incidence and deaths due to occupational accidents in Turkey during the period 1970-2000 were obtained and evaluated at the Department of Public Health, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey. The data were collected in January 2003. The occupational accident rates were analyzed by morbidity, mortality and case fatality rates. The change in each variable over years was tested by trend analysis methodology. A regression analysis was performed on data on 3-point moving averages. Results: The morbidity decreases significantly over the last 30 years (p<0.01) with a slope of -0.003. The correlation of the morbidity tendency due to years was 0.995 (p<0.01) and the total variance descriptive rate was 0.991. In respect to mortality, the variation due to years was declining (0.00001, p<0.01). The correlation of the model was 0.950 (p<0.01) and brings out the total variance to 0.903. The trend analysis model can be explained meaningfully in respect of constant and slope (p<0.01). In respect of fatality the variance over the years was 0.00029 (p<0.01). The correlation of the model was 0.934 (p<0.01) and brings out the total variance of 0.872. Conclusions: The main reason of the decrease of occupational accidents was probably due to unreported accidents, which do not cause injury. Reasons for underreporting of minor accidents should be investigated and this point should be taken into consideration when planning an occupational accident prevention programs.